In style macro skilled Lyn Alden believes {that a} peak of $100,000 for Bitcoin (BTC) through the subsequent market enlargement could be an underwhelming consequence.
In a brand new interview on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, Alden says that the rise or fall of world liquidity is a strong indicator of Bitcoin’s cycles.
Whereas Alden stresses the correlation between liquidity and BTC, she notes that the metric doesn’t supply any indication as to how excessive or low BTC’s value may go.
“Bitcoin is very correlated with liquidity when it comes to course, however there’s little or no method to choose a value from it. It’s not likely helpful for magnitude, so it’s not a kind of stock-to-flow fashions the place you’ll be able to say, ‘Okay, at this date it must be this value.’
I feel that lots of that’s actually onerous to evaluate.”
Alden predicts {that a} “spectrum” of 2024 and 2025 will probably be “optimistic for liquidity” and optimistic for risk-on property like Bitcoin. She goes on to put out a situation the place Bitcoin rallies by about 340% from present costs earlier than the top of 2025.
“My base-case expectation is for brand new all-time highs, hopefully over $100,000, so hopefully six figures. However then actually that vary… that vary is solely affordable. I’d truly be hesitant to guess the place that finally ends up.
I feel that one thing like $100,000 plus could be form of disappointing for a bull market cycle, particularly after the prior bull market cycle was on the disappointing finish, too.
So I’d form of hope for $200,000 or extra over the following two-plus years.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is buying and selling for $45,595, up over 6% within the final 24 hours.
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