Welcome again to the Now Publication. I’m Matt Medved.
Bitcoin simply hit a brand new all-time excessive above $109,000, however the timeline isn’t precisely euphoric. The prevailing temper is FOMO and jokes about nobody caring or being overexposed in altcoins. However that disconnect isn’t simply on crypto Twitter.
Final evening, I caught The Chainsmokers taking part in a secret set at The Edge, a One centesimal-floor skydeck overlooking the New York skyline. As a lot of you already know, I beforehand based Billboard Dance, so the dance music world was dwelling for years earlier than I dove into web3. I’ve identified Alex Pall and Drew Taggart since their early days taking part in NYC bottle service golf equipment — we got here up collectively throughout their meteoric rise. So anytime we hyperlink, it’s a little bit of a reunion with all of the music business gamers who have been a part of that period.
“Matt solely goes out when the crypto market is up,” joked TAO Group companion Jonathan Schwartz.
He’s not unsuitable. Nightlife’s a surprisingly good barometer for the place mainstream sentiment round crypto is at. On the peak of the NFT increase, everybody needed to know what tasks to purchase. After FTX collapsed, they have been asking if I’d discovered a brand new job. Final evening, crypto barely got here up in any respect. After I talked about that Bitcoin was approaching all-time highs, most individuals appeared stunned.
It struck me as a result of I’ve lived by way of the cycles, and I’ve by no means seen such a stark disconnect between worth motion and sentiment. Sure, the worth is up, however the cultural quantity remains to be low. Regardless of arguably probably the most bullish fundamentals crypto has ever seen— a pleasant administration, rising institutional inflows, and rising regulatory readability — the broader public nonetheless isn’t paying consideration. Retail hasn’t actually re-entered the world.
Why? Let’s break it down.
Bitcoin Hit a New All-Time Excessive. Why Doesn’t It Really feel Like It?
For starters, Wall Road enthusiasm hasn’t reached Important Road.
Not like earlier cycles, the place a frenzy of media consideration drove retail shopping for that helped propel Bitcoin to new heights, the previous yr’s rise has been quietly pushed by institutional capital.
A lot of the joy is going on behind closed doorways: on tradfi buying and selling desks, in wealth administration companies, and throughout institutional autos like spot ETFs. However on the floor, issues nonetheless really feel subdued. Costs could also be rising, however the social and cultural indicators of a full-blown bull run stay muted.
“We’re not actually in worth discovery but,” advisor and podcast host Aubrey Strobel tells Now Media. “Bitcoin’s all-time excessive doesn’t account for inflation—adjusted for greenback debasement, we’re nonetheless underwater. That’s why you’re not getting calls out of your family and friends but.”
“The actual euphoria received’t hit till we break above $110K with conviction,” she provides. “It’s been a quiet rally thus far, pushed largely by establishments, sovereign wealth funds, and the rising variety of Bitcoin entry autos being raised behind the scenes. Retail hasn’t arrived but.”
no texts and calls from household & buddies
larger.
— Aubrey Strobel (@aubreystrobel) May 21, 2025
Retail’s additionally in a really totally different spot than it was over the last bull run, which performed out towards the backdrop of pandemic lockdowns and stimulus checks. In 2025, most households are coping with rising debt and tighter budgets. U.S. family debt simply hit $18.2 trillion, with over $1.18 trillion on bank cards. The common family is carrying greater than $8,940 in card debt, and with the Fed maintaining rates of interest elevated, borrowing isn’t getting any cheaper.
It’s not precisely the perfect setup for speculative investing. Again in 2021, retail had money to play with and the arrogance to take dangers. Even when individuals are conscious of the rally, most don’t have the identical disposable earnings or danger urge for food.
However are individuals even tuned in? Investor Dan Held doesn’t consider so.
“Bitcoin is priced in for many who are paying consideration, and 99% aren’t paying consideration but,” Held tells Now Media.
“Bitcoin is priced in for many who are paying consideration, and 99% aren’t paying consideration but.”
DAN HELD
A part of that is because of a shift in how crypto is roofed. Mainstream media has matured together with the business. The area has grow to be extra regulated, extra severe, and extra financialized. Spot ETFs, SEC instances, and coverage debates are main the narrative now, not in a single day millionaires or viral JPEGs.
As I wrote in our e-newsletter earlier this month, the dearth of a breakout cultural narrative can be at play right here. Love them or hate them, NFTs introduced creators into crypto and onboarded a wave of recent customers. They gave the area a visible identification and a narrative individuals may truly interact with past worth motion. Additionally they provided one thing else: an actual shot at making a living, even for the uninitiated. From flipping PFPs to minting artwork, the entry factors felt accessible in a method that right this moment’s PVP memecoin melee doesn’t.
Memecoins could also be dominating the timeline and absorbing consideration and liquidity inside crypto, however they haven’t crossed the cultural chasm like NFTs did in 2021. And the massive moments haven’t been wins for many retail patrons. In accordance with Chainalysis, round 764,000 of the two million wallets that purchased President Trump’s $TRUMP memecoin misplaced cash — principally small holders. Unsurprisingly, a handful of early wallets captured nearly all of income
“Basically, the much less excited individuals are a few new all-time excessive, the extra room to go up within the brief time period.”
AMANDA CASSATT
Retail additionally reveals up for various causes, and sometimes sees the area by way of a totally totally different lens than crypto purists.
“My hairstylist at all times asks me what I consider XRP,” Amanda Cassatt, founding father of Serotonin, tells Now Media. “She holds it. I by no means purchased it. Based mostly on what she’s motivated by, she was proper. That’s why I don’t give quotes about how retail doesn’t perceive crypto markets. I’m motivated by fully various things from them, like desirous to usher thrilling expertise into the world.”
Finally, the muted response may truly be bullish.
“I feel euphoria is negatively correlated with short-term upwards movement,” Cassatt provides. “Basically, the much less excited individuals are a few new all-time excessive, the extra room to go up within the brief time period.”
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